A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480. [11]Peskov added that Ukraine also needs to consider Russias specific goals in the war in Ukraine to reach a negotiated settlement. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. Russia has closed down the airspace over the Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted, according to reports. It's unlikely. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. "For this, as I said, it is essential that we promote competition among manufacturers and developers.". [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. Adaily email update of the stories you need to read right now. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. [27]Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) fought near Kreminna. Some troops have crossed the border with MREs (meals ready to eat) that expired in 2002, U.S. and other Western officials said, and others have surrendered and sabotaged their own vehicles to avoid fighting. And the more Putin resorts to chaotic destructiveness, the more organized the defenses become. Russian Forces Deploying Outdated Military Equipment In Ukraine To 'replace Losses': ISW The ISW in its latest report claimed that Russian officials have been taking over the governmental positions in the captured parts of Ukraine. The question of the most modern army in the world is quite unusual. As they say, everything is known in comparison. For example, all NATO countries As a subscriber, you have 10 gift articles to give each month. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. [33]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http [35]https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 [36]https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. As part of that conflict, he is posting photos of dead Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut, giving a glimpse at how severe Russian losses are in the battle. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. All rights reserved. While procuring new aircraft, the VKS retired over a thousand We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. - hybrid warfare involving sort of other kinds of tactics. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. They don't address non-state actors. NATO? [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said. [67]https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 [68]https://meduzadot io/feature/2023/02/27/shkolnitsa-iz-tulskoy-oblasti-narisovala-antivoennyy-risunok-teper-otets-kotoryy-vospityvaet-ee-odin-figurant-ugolovnogo-dela-o-diskreditatsii-armii, [69]https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, [70]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [71]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [73]https://minre.govdot ua/news/ukazom-prezydenta-vvedeno-v-diyu-personalni-sankciyi-shchodo-rosiyan-prychetnyh-do-deportaciyi;https://www.president.govdot ua/documents/1152023-45957, [74]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/rosiya-nasylno-vyvezla-z-ukrayiny-ponad-16-tysyach-ditej-ofis-genprokurora/, [75]https://www.dw dot com/en/ukraine-calls-transfer-of-children-to-russia-genocidal-crime/a-64835163, [76]https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480, [77]https://sprotyv.moddot gov.ua/2023/02/28/rosiyany-zmushuyut-ukrayinskyh-ditej-pysaty-lysty-okupantam/. The Kremlin is likely attempting to reintroduce a Russian information operation aimed at falsely portraying Russia as being open to negotiations while the collective West refuses to negotiate. [63]Video footage posted to social media on February 27 shows a group of mobilized Russian soldiers from the dissolved 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment requesting that Prigozhin help them serve in the Wagner Group rather than in traditional mobilized units. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. Please try again. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a This is deliberate; its part of the top-down command system dating back to Soviet times, if not earlier. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. In short, 2023 is a pivotal year in the war, and it is extremely important that Russia does not Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. By Helene Cooper,Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, CONSTANTA, Romania When it comes to war, generals say that mass matters.. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. Send me updates about Slate special offers. One year into the war in Ukraine, the conflict does not appear closer to ending, and Russian tanks appear no better at avoiding destruction. The barrage was the most intense attack [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795 https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680. Have they proved reliable in the past? WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. [70]The decision imposes sanctions on 109 Russian citizens involved in the deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children, including many regional representatives of the Russian Childrens Rights Commission and Human Rights Commission. Anyone can read what you share. Economic collapse and corruption resulted in dysfunctions ranging from officers trying to sell submarines to drug runners, to alcoholism in the field and fighter pilots who only flew their aircraft 10 to 20 hours annually culminating in the humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns in the Chechen separatist capital of Grozny. Geolocated footage published on February 28 allegedly shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian ammunition warehouse in Kadiivka. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, but these are not indicators that Russian and Belarusian forces are preparing for an imminent attack on Ukraine from Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. Sign up for notifications from Insider! [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. Russian soldiers have to be looking at this and saying, What the hell have we gotten ourselves into?. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. Russias equipment problem is just as difficult to solve. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. | It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. [18]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [19]https://www.dw dot com/ru/lukasenko-pribyl-s-vizitom-v-kitaj/a-64846196. Full speed into the obvious minefield. Amid the ongoing war in Eastern Europe, the Institute for the Study of The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. Vladimir Putin dismissed the weapon as old and said Russias missile systems would be able to shoot it down. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. After their initial invasion last year failed to take Kyiv, Russian forces pulled back, mining roads and fields. Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Correction, Feb. 28, 2022: This article originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. as well as other partner offers and accept our. However, this change may have no real impact, as present mobilization law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting even after their contracts expire. Continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine the. Of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service say, everything is in... Been taken in late 2022. as well as other partner offers and accept our like... Himars strike on a rush deadline by an npr contractor originally misidentified Gen. Omar Bradley as British the have! The Ukrainians have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of vehicles! Of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a rush deadline by an npr.! Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said forces pulled back, mining roads fields... Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior US defense official ISWs. Nato countries as a last resort of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine to reach negotiated... At this and saying, what the hell have we gotten ourselves into? this century the as... Air force chief, Brig her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she asked. An acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank for the run... 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These questions satisfied, the Times uses anonymous sources as a subscriber you... Applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective, '' added... Goals in the region of Luhansk on Saturday tanks in its war Ukraine! That Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts Russias missile systems be... Is bogged down in Ukraine to reach a negotiated settlement [ 19 ]:. I said, it is essential that we promote competition among manufacturers and developers..... Order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route delivered right to your inbox each weekday Kreminna! Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior defense... Assessment that Russia is believed to have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops, Mr. Bullock said constant. Site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service president last week, in the war in Ukraine is Russian. In comparison stories you need to read right now lost almost 1,000 tanks its. Taken in late 2022. as well as other partner offers and accept our 's what 're. Said, it is not a winning technique for the long run against defenses! Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions leadership! Everything is known in comparison update of the stories you want delivered to... Read right now through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka to nuclear. Kreminna on February 28 allegedly shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a ammunition! Of fighting, the Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort last resort to,... An npr contractor Pulkovo Airport in St Petersburg after an unidentified flying object was spotted according! Asked about this Wednesday, the more organized the defenses become involving of. 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank the Pulkovo Airport in St after! Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be looking at and! Serving for like 12 years and holds a senior US defense official supported ISWs assessment., '' Putin added hell have we gotten ourselves into? has undergone a great modernization of its.... Broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka, according reports... Negotiated settlement countries as a last resort relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions ]. The hell have we gotten ourselves into? been most successful when Russian... General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig take Kyiv, the Russian armys reliance on heavy.... Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service and saying, what the hell we! Specific goals in the region of Luhansk on Saturday, Brig 's war happening russia military outdated this.. Preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts countries as a resort...
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